TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 5 Tropical Storm #PaengPH {NALGAE}

Written on October 27, 2022.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 5 ☔
Tropical Storm #PaengPH {NALGAE}
Issued at 11:00 AM, 27 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
#PaengPH INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
Location of Center (10:00 AM): The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data at 540 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (11.8°N, 130.4°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of
998 hPa
Present Movement: West southwestward at 10 km/h
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 460 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds (39 – 61 km/h)
Luzon:
Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu), and the eastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Bulusan, Santa Magdalena, Irosin, Juban, Casiguran, City of Sorsogon)
Visayas:
Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, and Samar
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tomorrow early morning through evening: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over MIMAROPA, BARMM, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Quezon, Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, and the rest of Visayas.
• Tomorrow evening through Saturday: Heavy to torrential rains possible over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Quezon. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains possible over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, Aurora, Bulacan, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, the rest of Eastern Visayas, and CALABARZON. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA.
• Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
• Due to the Shear Line and the trough of PAENG, heavy rains are possible over Visayas, most of Southern Luzon, and the northern portion of Mindanao. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today and Weather Advisory #4 issued at 11:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
• Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG. Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4, in anticipation of typhoon-force conditions associated with PAENG.
• In the next 24 hours, the surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Quezon, Bicol Region, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #8 issued at 5:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and the approaching tropical cyclone may also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track generally west northwestward over the Philippine Sea through Sunday while moving towards the central or northern portion of Luzon. On the forecast track, PAENG may pass close to Catanduanes on Saturday and a landfall scenario is possible on Sunday within any of the coastal areas along the eastern portions of Central Luzon or mainland Cagayan Valley. Considering recent shifts in the forecast track, a possible southward shift in the possible area of landfall (i.e., towards the eastern portion of Southern Luzon) is not ruled out at this time.
• PAENG intensified into a tropical storm at 8:00 AM today. Further intensification is likely while moving over warm waters of the Philippine Sea. PAENG is forecast to reach severe tropical storm category within 24 hours and may intensify into a typhoon by Saturday. The occurrence of rapid intensification in the next 72 hours is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today
DOST-PAGASA
https://bit.ly/3RQj55J