TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4 Tropical Depression “#MaymayPH”
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4
Tropical Depression “#MaymayPH”
Issued at 11:00 PM, 11 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “MAYMAY” IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
Location of Center (10:00 PM):
The center of Tropical Depression “MAYMAY” was estimated based on all available data at 270 km East of Casiguran, Aurora or 320 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.8°N, 124.6°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
South Southwestward Slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
Wind threat: Strong winds
Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and the extreme northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Pollilo Islands
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today through tomorrow afternoon, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan and Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 PM today and the Weather Advisory #5 issued at 11:00 PM today.
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) may be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• In the next 24 hours, occasional gusts reaching strong to gale-force strength associated with the enhanced northeasterly surface windflow and its convergence with the tropical depression circulation may also be experienced (especially in the coastal and mountainous areas) over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of MAYMAY and the surge of northeasterly surface windflow, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #5 issued at 5:00 PM today.
• In the next 24 hours, the surge of northeasterly surface windflow may also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression MAYMAY is forecast to move slowly westward or remain almost stationary in the next 12 hours before it gradually accelerates westward toward Central Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of this tropical cyclone may make landfall in the vicinity of Aurora by Thursday morning. Afterwards, the center of “MAYMAY” will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon.
• “MAYMAY” is forecast to maintain its strength prior to its landfall. Due to the frictional effects, this tropical cyclone may be downgraded to remnant low while traversing over the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.