TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 2

Written on October 11, 2022.

Tropical Depression “#MaymayPH”
Issued at 11:00 AM, 11 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
“MAYMAY” MAINTAINS ITS STREGNTH WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF AURORA.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression “MAYMAY” was estimated based on all available data at 285 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.1°N, 124.8°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
Present Movement:
West southwestward slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon:
Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and the extreme northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Pollilo Islands
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rains
• Today through tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Norte.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today and the Weather Advisory #4 issued at 11:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) may be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• In the next 24 hours, occasional gusts reaching strong to gale-force strength associated with the enhanced northeasterly surface windflow and its convergence with the tropical depression circulation may also be experienced (especially in the coastal and mountainous areas) over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of MAYMAY and the surge of northeasterly surface windflow, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, the surge of northeasterly surface windflow may also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the western seaboard of Central Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression MAYMAY will continue moving slowly west southwestward or westward towards Central Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of this tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Aurora or northern portion of Quezon by tomorrow afternoon or evening. Afterwards, the center of “MAYMAY” will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea by Thursday morning.
• “MAYMAY” is forecast to maintain its strength prior to its landfall. Due to frictional effects, this tropical cyclone may be downgraded to Low Pressure Area once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea. Weakening to Low Pressure Area while traversing over Central Luzon is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
https://bit.ly/3RQj55J