TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19

“PAENG” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING OVER SAN PABLO CITY, LAGUNA

Location of Center (4:00 PM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Tagaytay Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of San Pablo City, Laguna (14.1°N, 121.3°E)

Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa

Present Movement: Northwestward at 20 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 3

Wind threat: Storm-force winds

Warning lead time: 18 hours

Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

Luzon:

Metro Manila, Bataan, the southern portion of Zambales (Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio), the northern and central portions of Quezon (Pitogo, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Infanta, Tiaong, Unisan, Plaridel, San Antonio, Candelaria, Lucban, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Sariaya, City of Tayabas, Mauban, Dolores, General Nakar, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan) including Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Rizal, the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Islands, and the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (San Teodoro, Puerto Galera, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan)

TCWS No. 2

Wind threat: Gale-force winds

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Luzon:

The southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, the rest of Zambales, the western portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Milaor, Camaligan, Pili, San Fernando, Magarao, Minalabac, Naga City, Calabanga, Bombon, Canaman, Gainza, Sipocot, Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Pasacao, Cabusao, Libmanan, Pamplona), the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Camarines Norte, the rest of Quezon, Marinduque, and Romblon

TCWS No. 1

Wind threat: Strong winds

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Luzon:

Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, La Union, Kalinga, Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Aurora, Catanduanes, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli, Roxas, San Vicente) including Calamian Islands and Cuyo Islands

Visayas:

Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Oras, Arteche, Jipapad, Maslog, Dolores, Can-Avid), the northern portion of Leyte (Tunga, San Miguel, Matag-Ob, Calubian, Leyte, Carigara, Babatngon, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Villaba, Palompon, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Capoocan, Alangalang, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo), Biliran, the northern and central portions of Samar (San Jorge, San Sebastian, Santa Rita, Villareal, Zumarraga, Matuguinao, Pinabacdao, Almagro, Calbayog City, Talalora, Jiabong, Pagsanghan, City of Catbalogan, Gandara, Motiong, Santo Nino, Tagapul-An, San Jose de Buan, Santa Margarita, Tarangnan, Daram, Paranas, Hinabangan, Calbiga), the northern and central portions of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Tabogon, City of Bogo, Borbon, Tabuelan, Sogod, Catmon, Tuburan, Carmen, Danao City, Asturias, Balamban, Compostela, Toledo City, Pinamungahan, Cebu City, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Liloan, Lapu-Lapu City, Aloguinsan, Minglanilla, City of Talisay, City of Naga, San Fernando, City of Carcar, Barili) including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Sagay City, Cadiz City, City of Escalante, Manapla, Enrique B. Magalona, City of Victorias, Silay City, City of Talisay, Murcia, Bacolod City, Bago City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, La Carlota City, La Castellana, San Enrique, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, Moises Padilla, Isabela, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Toboso, Binalbagan, City of Himamaylan), the northern portion of Negros Oriental (Canlaon City, Vallehermoso, La Libertad, City of Guihulngan, Jimalalud, Tayasan), Guimaras, Capiz, Iloilo, Aklan, and Antique

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals in other areas are hereby lifted

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall

• This afternoon through evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Camarines Provinces, mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, and Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

• Tomorrow: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Zambales, Bataan, and Ilocos Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, MIMAROPA, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of Central Luzon.

Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

Severe Winds

• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds reaching gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the passage of the tropical cyclone.

• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.

Coastal Inundation

There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of western Pangasinan, Bataan, Quezon, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, western portion of Camarines Sur, and Burias Island. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #6 issued at 2:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Severe Tropical Storm PAENG, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #13 issued at 5:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track west northwestward through tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the center of PAENG will traverse the Cavite-Batangas area, then will cross the southern portion of Bataan.

• PAENG may maintain its strength while traversing the Luzon landmass and further intensification is likely once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

Recent landfall: Sariaya, Quezon (1:40 PM today)

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA