TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 17
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 17
Severe Tropical Storm #PaengPH (NALGAE)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today
“PAENG” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MARINDUQUE
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Tagaytay Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of Mogpog, Marinduque (13.5°N, 121.9°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 130 km/h, and central pressure of
West southwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to
560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Marinduque, the northern and central portions of Quezon (Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, Lucena City, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Tiaong, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, San Antonio, Alabat, Candelaria, Lucban, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Sariaya, City of Tayabas, Macalelon, Mauban, Dolores, General Nakar, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, Guinayangan, Calauag) including Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Rizal, Bataan, the southern portion of Zambales (Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio), and Lubang Islands – –
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
The northwestern portion of Sorsogon (Pilar, Donsol), the western portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Baleno, Mandaon) including Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Quezon, Romblon, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Albay, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, and the rest of Zambales
The northwestern portion of Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Caluya Islands) and the western portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay, Tangalan, Makato, Numancia, Lezo)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Abra, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Aurora, Catanduanes, the rest of Sorsogon, the rest of Masbate including Ticao Island, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli, Roxas, San Vicente) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras,the rest of Aklan, the rest of Antique, Capiz, and Iloilo –
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, and Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Tomorrow: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Zambales, Bataan, and Ilocos Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Metro Manila, MIMAROPA, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of Central Luzon.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds reaching gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the passage of the tropical cyclone.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of western Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, southern Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Albay. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #5 issued at 8:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Severe Tropical Storm PAENG, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #12 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track westward in the short term before moving west northwestward through Sunday across Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of PAENG will make landfall in the vicinity of southeastern portion of Batangas before traversing the Cavite-Metro Manila-Bataan Peninsula area for the remainder of the day. However, southward shift in the forecast track of PAENG is possible in the succeeding bulletins.
• Due to frictional effects, PAENG may weaken into a tropical storm while moving over the Luzon landmass. However, PAENG may re-intensify into a severe tropical storm once it reaches the West Philippine Sea.
Recent landfalls: Santa Cruz, Marinduque (8:40 AM today)
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.