TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12

Written on September 24, 2022.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12 ☔
Typhoon #KardingPH (NORU)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 24 September 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 AM tomorrow.
TYPHOON “KARDING” CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon KARDING was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 430 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.3°N, 125.6°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
Present Movement
West southwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 270 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
=>Warning lead time: 18 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon
Polillo Islands and the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga)
TCWS No.2
=>Warning lead time: 24 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones), Quirino, the central and southeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Bambang, Dupax del Norte, Kasibu, Quezon, Bayombong, Diadi), the eastern portion of Pangasinan (Mangatarem, Basista, Urbiztondo, Malasiqui, Manaoag, Pozorrubio, Sison, Bayambang, Bautista, Alcala, Santo Tomas, Villasis, City of Urdaneta, Laoac, Binalonan, Asingan, Rosales, Santa Maria, Balungao, Umingan, San Quintin, Tayug, Natividad, San Manuel, San Nicolas), Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Metro Manila, Cavite, the eastern portion of Batangas (Talisay, City of Tanauan, Santo Tomas, Malvar), Laguna, Rizal, the northern and central portions of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Calauag, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Sampaloc, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Pitogo, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tiaong, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Buenavista), the rest of Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Pamplona, Pasacao, San Fernando, Pili, Minalabac, Ocampo, Tigaon, Cabusao, Magarao, Gainza, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Naga City, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagñay), and Catanduanes
TCWS No.1
=>Warning lead time: 36 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Cagayan (Tuao, Solana, Enrile, Tuguegarao City, Iguig, Peñablanca), the rest of Isabela, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, Zambales, the rest of Batangas, the rest of Quezon, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz) including Lubang Islands, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola), Marinduque, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, City of Sorsogon, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Magallanes, Juban, Casiguran), and Burias Island.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tonight through tomorrow morning: Moderate to heavy rains over mainland Cagayan and Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Babuyan Islands, Aurora, northern portion of Quezon including Polilio Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
• Tomorrow morning through evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, southern portion of Aurora, Rizal, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polilio Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the rest of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, the northern portion of Aurora, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, and the central portion of Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batangas, Camarines Norte, and Catanduanes.
• Tomorrow evening through Monday morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains Metro Manila, Quirino, the rest of Central Luzon, and Cavite. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, and the rest of CALABARZON.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by KARDING, occasional rains are also possible over Visayas and the rest of Southern Luzon, especially on their western sections. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 PM today. Furthermore, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
• During the passage of KARDING, winds may reach storm-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds may reach gale-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• The highest wind signal that will be hoisted for this typhoon is Wind Signal No. 4.
Coastal Inundation
The combined effects of storm surge and high waves breaking along the coast may cause inundation or flooding over the coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon (east coast, including Polillo Islands), and Camarines Norte.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of KARDING, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the eastern seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 PM today.
• In the next 24 hours, prevailing northeasterlies and the approaching typhoon will also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Typhoon KARDING is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward in the next 12 hours before turning more westward towards the east coast of southern portion of Aurora or northern portion of Quezon, where it is likely to make landfall tomorrow afternoon or early evening. After crossing Central Luzon, the tropical cyclone is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late evening or Monday early morning. KARDING will then continue tracking generally westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
• KARDING is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying in the near term and may make landfall at or near peak intensity of 150-155 km/h. While it is likely for this tropical cyclone to slightly weaken during its landfall and traverse of Central Luzon due to frictional effects, it is highly likely that KARDING will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3cXQPjd