TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11

Written on September 24, 2022.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11 ☔
Typhoon #KardingPH (NORU)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 24 September 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today
“KARDING” RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON
• Location of Center (7:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon KARDING was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 490 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.4°N, 126.2°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
• Present Movement
Southwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 270 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
=>Warning lead time: 18 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon
The northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons) and the eastern portion of Polillo Islands (Kalongkooan Is., Kalotkot Is., Patnanungan Is., and Jomalig Is.)
TCWS No.2
=>Warning lead time: 24 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Jones, San Agustin, Echague, San Mariano), Quirino, the central and southeastern portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Bambang, Dupax del Norte, Kasibu, Quezon, Bayombong, Diadi), Aurora, Nueva Ecija, the eastern portion of Tarlac (Concepcion, La Paz, Victoria, Pura, Ramos, Anao, San Manuel, Moncada, Paniqui, Gerona, City of Tarlac), Bulacan, the eastern portion of Pampanga (Apalit, San Simon, San Luis, Candaba, Santa Ana, Arayat, Magalang), Metro Manila, the northern and central portions of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Calauag, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Sampaloc, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Pitogo) including the rest of Polillo Islands, the northern and central portions of Laguna (Santa Maria, Siniloan, Famy, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Santa Cruz, Pagsanjan, Magdalena, Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Pila, Victoria, Nagcarlan, Bay, Los Baños, City of Calamba, City of Santa Rosa, City of Biñan, City of San Pedro, Cabuyao City, Rizal, Calauan), the northeastern portion of Cavite (Bacoor City, Kawit, Imus City, City of Dasmariñas, Carmona, Gen. Mariano Alvarez, Cavite City), Rizal, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (Umingan, Bautista, Alcala, Rosales, Balungao, Santa Maria, San Quintin, Natividad, Tayug, Asingan, San Nicolas, San Manuel, Santo Tomas, Bayambang, Malasiqui, Villasis, City of Urdaneta, Binalonan, Laoac, Sison, Pozorrubio), the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Siruma, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Tinambac, Presentacion, San Jose, Goa, Cabusao, Libmanan, Calabanga, Bombon, Magarao), the northern and central portions of Catanduanes (Caramoran, Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, San Miguel, Baras, Gigmoto, San Andres), and the rest of Camarines Norte
TCWS No.1
=>Warning lead time: 36 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Iguig, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Tuao, Piat, Amulung, Rizal), the rest of Isabela, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Tarlac, the rest of Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, the rest of Laguna, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, the rest of Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Lubang Islands, Paluan, Abra de Ilog), and the northewestern portion of Oriental Mindoro (San Teodoro, Puerto Galera, City of Calapan, Baco)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, the northern portion of Aurora, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
• Rest of tomorrow through Monday early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and the northern portion of Zambales. Heavy to intense rains over the rest of Central Luzon. Moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Provinces, La Union, Metro Manila, and the rest of CALABARZON.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by KARDING, occasional rains are also possible beginning today or tomorrow over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially over their western sections. As such, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
• Throughout the passage of KARDING, winds may reach storm-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds may reach gale-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of KARDING, Gale Warning remains in effect over the eastern seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #1 issued at 5:00 PM today.
• In the next 24 hours, a preceding northeasterlies and the approaching typhoon may bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Typhoon KARDING is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward before turning west northwestward towards the east coast of southern portion of Aurora or northern portion of Quezon, where it is likely to make landfall tomorrow afternoon or early evening. After crossing Central Luzon, the tropical cyclone is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late evening or Monday early morning. KARDING will then continue tracking westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
• KARDING intensifies into a typhoon at 5:00 PM today. This tropical cyclone is forecast to further intensify prior to landfall. While it is likely for this tropical cyclone to slightly weaken due to land interaction during its traverse over Central Luzon, it is highly likely that KARDING will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3cXQPjd