TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10

Written on September 24, 2022.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10 ☔
Severe Tropical Storm #KardingPH (NORU)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 24 September 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
“KARDING” INTENSIFIES FURTHER WHILE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF AURORA
Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm KARDING was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East of Casiguran, Aurora or 520 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.6°N, 126.5°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement
West Southwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2
=>Warning lead time: 24 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
The southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, Jones, San Agustin, Echague, San Guillermo, San Mariano), the southeastern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan, Maddela), the southeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda), the eastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Bongabon, Laur, Palayan City, General Tinio, Gabaldon, Pantabangan, Rizal), Aurora, the eastern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray), the eastern portion of Rizal (Rodriguez, City of Antipolo, Tanay), the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Pakil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti), the northern and central portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Pollilo Islands, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan), the northwestern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot), and Camarines Norte
TCWS No.1
=>Warning lead time: 36 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Iguig, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Tuao, Piat, Amulung, Rizal), the rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, the rest of Laguna, the rest of Rizal, the rest of Quezon, Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Lubang Islands, Paluan, Abra de Ilog), and the northewestern portion of Oriental Mindoro (San Teodoro, Puerto Galera, City of Calapan, Baco)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, the northern portion of Aurora, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
• Rest of tomorrow through Monday early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and the northern portion of Zambales. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the rest of Central Luzon. Moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Provinces, La Union, Metro Manila, and CALABARZON.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by KARDING, occasional rains are also possible beginning today or tomorrow over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially over their western sections. As such, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach gale-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted throughout the passage of KARDING. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4.
• Under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm KARDING, a Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #1 issued at 5:00 PM today.
• In the next 24 hours, a preceding northeasterlies and the approaching severe tropical storm may bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm KARDING is forecast to track generally west southwestward to westward towards the east coast of Aurora or northern portion of Quezon, where it is likely to make landfall tomorrow afternoon. After crossing Central Luzon, the tropical cyclone is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late evening or Monday early morning. KARDING will then continue tracking westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
• This tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify into a typhoon in the next 12 hours and may further intensify prior to landfall. While it is likely for this tropical cyclone to slightly weaken due to land interaction during its traverse over Central Luzon, it is highly likely that KARDING will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3cXQPjd