TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
Tropical Depression #PaengPH
Issued at 11:00 AM, 26 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF EASTERN VISAYAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION “PAENG”
• Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data at 965 km East of Eastern Visayas (12.4°N, 133.5°E)
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
• Present Movement:
West northwestward slowly
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
• No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently hoisted
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Friday morning through Saturday morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains possible over Bicol Region. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Rizal, Laguna, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of Visayas and Cagayan Valley.
• Saturday morning through Sunday: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains possible over Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, and the northern portion of Aurora. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Ilocos Norte, and the rest of Aurora, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Administrative Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
• Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Shear Line and the trough of “PAENG”, heavy rains are possible over Quezon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and the northern and western portions of Mindanao. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today and the Weather Advisory #3 issued at 11:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
• Based on the latest forecast scenario, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal may be hoisted for some areas in Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region tomorrow morning at the earliest. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force winds over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte in the next 24 hours.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #6 issued at 5:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and the approaching tropical cyclone may also bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression PAENG is forecast to track generally westward until tomorrow afternoon, then it will turn west northwestward for the remainder of tomorrow through Saturday morning. Afterwards, PAENG will begin to move northwestward on Saturday afternoon or evening and may pass close to Northern Luzon on Sunday or Monday. A landfall scenario in Northern Luzon is not ruled out.
• PAENG developed into a tropical depression at 8:00 AM today. It is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm tomorrow. Further intensification is likely while moving over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category on Saturday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/PaengPH